China’s zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries, set to take effect on May 1, 2026, is expected to significantly expand export opportunities and strengthen value chains across agriculture, mining, and manufacturing, according to Ghanaian economic analyst Jonas Atingdui.
In an interview, Atingdui described the policy as a “game-changer,” highlighting the vast potential of China’s 1.4-billion-consumer market for African exporters. Key products expected to benefit include cocoa, shea butter, timber, gold, and other value-added goods. He noted that Ghana’s move toward processing cocoa domestically—such as producing chocolate for export—could substantially increase foreign exchange earnings, especially as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire together account for about 60 percent of global cocoa production.
Shea butter, a key ingredient in the global cosmetics industry, was also identified as a high-potential export. Its market value is projected to grow from 220 million U.S. dollars in 2025 to 390 million dollars by 2030. Farmers in northern Ghana, the country’s main production region, stand to benefit significantly if export capacity is strengthened to meet rising demand from China.
Beyond agriculture, Ghana’s timber and gold sectors are poised to gain due to China’s strong import demand. Atingdui emphasized that China’s zero-tariff initiative provides African countries with a valuable alternative market amid tightening trade conditions in some Western economies.
However, he stressed that governments must create enabling environments for businesses to fully capitalize on these opportunities. This includes improving access to financing, offering tax incentives for export-oriented industries, upgrading infrastructure such as electricity, water, roads, and judicial systems, and strengthening product quality standards.
Atingdui also highlighted the importance of aligning national industrial policies with the zero-tariff framework and reducing non-tariff barriers through continued negotiations. He noted that the policy, combined with the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), provides Africa with two powerful engines for economic growth. While AfCFTA promotes intra-African trade and specialization, China’s vast market offers scale, increased production opportunities, and enhanced global competitiveness for African industries.
